AWPFC releases first forecast of shorn wool production for 2026/27

The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee’s (AWPFC) first forecast of shorn wool production for the 2026/27 season is 243.9 million kilograms (Mkg) greasy. This is 4.5% lower than the 2025/26 forecast.

Committee Chairman, Stephen Hill said that "Seasonal conditions continue to challenge sheep enterprises in key wool producing regions, particularly in New South Wales, Tasmania and southern Queensland. While much wanted rain fell during February and March in other states, stock water availability remains an issue, particularly in Victoria and New South Wales”.

Mr Hill noted that “while the improved wool market continues to boost producer sentiment regarding wool production, sheep producers remain wary of the dry seasonal outlook. The high cost of replacement breeding ewes has persisted, with short-term flock recovery expected to be based on breeding those ewes currently on hand. Global uncertainty adds to the mix of variables impacting sheep producer decision making going into the new season”.

The AWPFC has updated its forecast of shorn wool production for the 2025/26 season. The fourth forecast is for production of 255.4 million kilograms (Mkg) greasy. This is 8.8% lower than the 2024/25 estimate.

The number of sheep shorn is forecast to remain at a historically low level of 59.3 million, due to lower numbers of breeding ewes and continued high sheepmeat and skin prices.

Compared with the same time last year sheep and lamb slaughter from July to December 2025 were down 25% and 12% respectively. Looking at the 5-year (July to December) averages, sheep slaughter remained 12% higher and lamb slaughter 5% lower. Based on ABS slaughter numbers, both sheep and lamb weights were higher than in the December quarter in 2024.

Average cut per head is forecast to be 4.31 kg greasy (down 3.1%). AWTA key test data for the 2025/26 season to the end of March show no change in mean fibre diameter or vegetable matter, a 0.3 mm increase in staple length, 0.6 N/ktex reduction in staple strength and a 0.1% reduction in yield.

AWTA wool test volumes for the 2025/26 season to the end of March were 208.5 Mkg greasy down by 9.5% on a year-on-year basis. AWEX data showed that firsthand wool offered at auction during 2025/26 to the end of March (week 40) were 197.3 Mkg greasy, down by 3.1%.

The AWPFC adopted the ABS flock estimates released in December 2025, which included revised national flock figures from 2016/17 onwards that reflect the change in scope to capture all sheep grown for commercial gain in Australia.

Table 1: Summary of Australian wool production

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Table 2: Total shorn wool production by state

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Table 3: AWTA key test data for 2024/25 and 2025/26 (July to March)

The National Committee drew on advice from the six State Committees, each of which includes growers, brokers, private treaty merchants, sheep pregnancy scanners, representatives from State Departments of Agriculture and the Australian Wool Testing Authority. Data and input were also drawn from AWTA, AWEX, wool exporters, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABARES, the Bureau of Meteorology and Meat and Livestock Australia.

The state and national Committees will next meet in mid-August 2026.

The full forecast report will be available on the AWI website at www.wool.com/forecasts from 1 May 2026.

Released by:
Kevin Wilde
Australian Wool Innovation, General Manager, Consultation and Engagement