Confidence strengthens in Australia's sheep industry as producers look to rebuild flocks

Following improved seasonal conditions driven by widespread rainfall across southern Australia, sheep producers are increasingly looking to retain and rebuild flocks, supported by historically strong sheepmeat prices, strengthening wool markets and a tighter national sheep supply.

MLA Senior Market Information Analyst Emiliano Diaz said the May 2026 survey captured a notable change in industry confidence.

“What is particularly significant is that we are seeing confidence improve while many producers are still operating under difficult seasonal conditions,” Mr Diaz said.

“Twelve months ago, many sheep producers were focused on managing risk, reducing flock numbers and preserving cash flow.

“This year, the outlook is fundamentally different. Producers are increasingly looking at opportunities to retain stock, rebuild breeding capacity and position themselves for future production.”

Confidence in sheepmeat remains exceptionally strong, with 86% of producers reporting a positive outlook and net sentiment reaching +84.

Importantly, confidence was consistent across states and flock sizes, suggesting optimism is being driven by industry-wide conditions rather than isolated regional factors.

Mr Diaz said the breadth of confidence across the sector was particularly encouraging.

“Strong sheepmeat prices and tighter national supply are continuing to provide producers with confidence in the outlook for the industry,” Mr Diaz said.

“What stands out in this survey is that confidence is not confined to one region or one production system. Producers across the country are seeing positive market signals and responding accordingly.”

The survey also reveals a marked change in flock management intentions.

Last year, producers were considerably more likely to be planning breeding ewe reductions than expansions. In the latest survey, that trend has reversed, with 37% intending to increase breeding ewe numbers and only 28% expecting to reduce them.

This shift is one of the clearest indicators that producers have moved from a defensive position to a longer-term production mindset.

“Breeding ewes are the engine room of the national flock, so intentions around ewe retention provide a strong signal about future industry expectations,” Mr Diaz said.

Wool confidence rebounds

One of the survey's most significant findings was the sharp improvement in sentiment towards the wool industry, with net sentiment improving by 80 points year-on-year.

More than half of producers now hold a positive outlook for wool, compared to just 7% reporting a negative view.

Australian Wool Innovation’s Head of Domestic Operations Scott Carmody says the industry’s mood is on the up again.

“It is a great time to be in the sheep game,” Mr Carmody said.

“An incredible improvement in woolgrower sentiment in just a year off the back of much better prices for growers and improved seasonal conditions for many.

“The significant recovery in price was overdue and a just reward for those who stuck with growing wool.

“The challenge now is to accelerate the rebuilding of the flock over the next few years while maintaining strong prices paid to growers.”

However, producers remain acutely aware of the challenges facing the sector.

Weather and seasonal conditions continue to be the most important factors shaping decision-making, while feed availability, input costs and labour availability remain major concerns.

Producers also identified government policy, global economic uncertainty and geopolitical developments as emerging influences on their businesses.

The May 2026 Sheep Producers Intentions Survey gathered responses from 1,517 sheep producers across Australia and is conducted jointly by MLA and Australian Wool Innovation to inform national wool and sheepmeat production forecasts and provide insight into producer sentiment and flock intentions.

View a full copy of the May Sheep Producers Intentions Survey here: Sheep Producers Intentions Survey May 2026

For media enquiries contact: Jack Johnston, MLA Corporate Affairs and Media Manager, p: 0407 282 971, e: media@mla.com.au

Kevin Wilde, AWI General Manager, Consultation & Engagement, p: 0436 031 277, e: kevin.wilde@wool.com

About MLA:

Meat & Livestock Australia Limited (MLA) delivers marketing and research and development services for Australia's cattle, sheep and goat producers, creating opportunities from their combined investments to build demand and productivity across the supply chain. Most of MLA's funding comes from transaction levies placed on the sale of livestock, with the Australian Government providing matched funding for levy investment in most R&D.