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AWI forecasts Australian wool production volumes and qualities three times a year. National and State level committee structures use a consensus-based forecasting methods supported by industry data and grower survey information. Accurate forecasting of Australian wool production volumes is critical to the global trade, given Australia's dominance of global apparel wool production.
Production forecasts are published in this section with a Media Release. The full report is available as a downloadable PDF within the Media Release. The detailed report features the forecasts, historical data and commentary on the key drivers of the forecasts.
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee forecasts that Australian shorn wool production for 2018/19 will reach 298 mkg greasy. This is a 12.6% decline from the levels in 2017/18 and reflects the continuing drought conditions across large parts of the Australia.
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has revised its forecast of shorn wool production for the 2018/19 season to 298 million kilograms (mkg) greasy, a 12.7% decline on the 2017/18 season and lower than its forecast of 305 mkg (-10.8%) at its November 2018 meeting.
Committee Chairman, Russell Pattinson said that "ongoing drought conditions across large parts of Australia have further decreased Australian wool production. Adult sheep numbers continued to decline during the 2018/19 season. To the end of January 2019, there has been a 25% increase in the adult sheep slaughter compared with the same period a year earlier.”
“Along with a reduction in greasy wool production there have also been significant changes in key test parameters, a further reflection of ongoing dry conditions. Average yield, which currently stands at 63.8% is at its lowest level in 8 seasons while the mean fibre diameter of the national clip is 0.5 microns finer than at the same time last season. There have also been considerable reductions in staple length, staple strength and vegetable matter. The Committee noted that the AWTA test data to March 2019 showed a significant increase in the weight of wool tested of 17.5 microns and finer, as well as a decline in the volume of 18.6 to 24.5 microns wool and 26.6 and broader.”
‘The Committee noted that welcome rain has fallen across several key wool producing areas around the country during the last week of March but recognised follow-up falls will be necessary. Wool producers recognise the value of their breeding ewes and are intending to hold them where possible.
The AWPFC’s first forecast of shorn wool production for the 2019/20 season is 285 mkg greasy, a 4.5% decline on the 2018/19 forecast. This forecast assumes a return of normal seasonal conditions. The Committee acknowledges that the impact of the drought will continue into the new season due, in part, to reported low scanning and lambing percentages in 2018/19.
Table 1: Summary of wool production estimates and forecasts for Australia
|Sheep numbers shorn (million head)||76.8||71.2||- 7.3%||67.9||- 4.5%|
|Average cut per head (kg/head)||4.4||4.2||- 4.5%||4.2||0.0%|
|Shorn wool production
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
Table 2: Total shorn wool production by state - 2016/17, 2017/18 and 2018/19
|2016/17 Final Estimate (mkg)||126.0||67.4||71.1||57.9||9.2||8.5||340|
|2017/18 Final Estimate (mkg)||125.7||73.5||65.1||59.5||9.3||8.3||341|
|Change y-o-y %||-0.2%||+9.1%||-8.4%||+2.8%||+1.1%||-2.4%||+0.3%|
|2018/19 Fourth Forecast (mkg)||100.0||68.7||60.4||53.0||9.0||7.4||298|
|Change y-o-y %||-20.4%||-6.5%||-7.2%||-10.9%||-3.2%||-10.8%||-12.7%|
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
The National Committee drew on advice from the six State Committees, each of which includes growers, brokers, private treaty merchants, representatives from State Departments of Agriculture and the Australian Wool Testing Authority. Data and input was also drawn from AWEX, wool exporters, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABARES, and Meat and Livestock Australia.